Sad as it is to say, Ken Holland's best days are probably long behind him.
To think, such a statement even a few years ago would have been considered heresy to the Hockeytown faithful.
But indeed, it's safe to say that the long-time Red Wings GM doesn't look quite as infallible as he did during the pre-cap era, and the goodwill he managed to buy for himself with the 2008 Stanley Cup victory, Detroit's only championship since the salary cap was instituted over a decade ago, is finally starting to run dry.
Such is what happens when your team hasn't advanced beyond the second round in the playoffs since 2009, and has been knocked out in the first round the last two.
Despite their best efforts, the Red Wings managed to extend their playoff streak to 25 years, though not through much effort of their own, playing .500 hockey for the last month of the season and, faced with a scenario in which they controlled their destiny by simply winning two of their last three games, the Wings kept their hopes alive by shutting out the Flyers on Wednesday, then followed that with an embarrassing showing against the Boston Bruins on Thursday. Finally, against a New York Rangers team that would have benefited from a loss on Saturday, the Wings simply couldn't capitalize, despite being on the power play for the final 1:13 of the game and even having a 6-on-3 advantage in the final 20 seconds. Fortunately for them, the Bruins put up an even more pathetic display on their home ice, getting blown out 6-1 by an Ottawa team whose own playoff hopes were dashed weeks prior.
As a result, the Wings get a break in more ways than one, qualifying for the playoffs despite themselves and facing a banged-up Tampa Bay Lightning that will be missing Steve Stamkos, Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson, and potentially Victor Hedman and Ryan Callahan as well. Despite the mounting injuries for Tampa Bay, it's hard to see any conclusion to the season other than yet another first round knockout, especially with the news that Anthony Mantha has been sent down to Grand Rapids in favor of Joakim Andersson, because in the mind of Holland, clearly the 22nd ranked offense in the league doesn't need a guy who's got 2 power play goals in ten games nearly as much as they need a guy who has one goal in 28 games.
And to make things worse, Holland had this to say to the Detroit News: "Mantha was a spare part in the Calder Cup playoffs a year ago. Why does anyone think he's going to be the answer in Detroit?" This is the second time in as many seasons that the front office has felt the need to bash Mantha to the press; last year it was Jimmy Devellano calling him "very disappointing." This is a guy you're counting on to be the future of the franchise; why the need to continuously do this, and to put Mantha on the shelf in favor of less talented players, especially when your offense is in shambles as it is?
And you thought "kids aren't the answer" went out the door with Mike Babcock.
Certainly it's tempting to put quite a bit of blame on Jeff Blashill here; after all; during his short stint in Detroit, Mantha spent most of his time on the fourth line before being exiled to "healthy scratch" territory in favor of the aforementioned Andersson. But you almost get the sense that there was pressure on Blashill from above to play it safe and protect the streak at all costs; after all, this is the same coach that started Dylan Larkin on opening night, and gave significant minutes to Andreas Athanasiou during his first cup of coffee with the team. Those moves don't exactly signify the second coming of Babcock. And Blashill's apparent mid-season change of heart regarding the kids seems to suggest the continuation of an organizational philosophy that hasn't gained the Wings much in the way of postseason success.
Consider this as well: it's been widely reported that this is Pavel Datsyuk's last season with Detroit, with the superstar wishing to return home to Russia to finish his professional career with the KHL. If this proves to be the case, that will leave Detroit with a $7.5 million cap hit that can only be lifted off the books by trading it away. This raises two concerns with Holland's management of this team. For starters, it's been known for at least the last few years that Datsyuk has wanted to finish his career in his home country, and the current CBA states that any team that signs a player over 35 to a multi-year deal is stuck with the cap hit in the event of that player's retirement. (The Ilya Kovalchuk rule, if you will.) Knowing this very thing was always a possibility, why was Datsyuk not being signed on a year-to-year basis?
But since that's all but settled, let's move on to the second issue with all of this. With a $7.5 million albatross hanging around Detroit's payroll, how can Holland reasonably expect to make this team a legitimate contender last year? (Other than by trading the cap hit away, which he apparently does not plan to do, per Sunday's article in the Freep.) Obviously there's no room for Stamkos at that point, and more realistically, this could hinder the team's ability to re-sign Darren Helm, who's performed pretty well down the stretch this season. Sure, you have the dead weight of Kyle Quincey coming off the books, but you still have restricted free agents in Alexey Marchenko, Petr Mrazek, Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser, and Teemu Pulkkinen to contend with. Where does the money come from to pay them and supplement the roster from there?
And if they decide to go the route of bringing up the best Grand Rapids has to offer... then why are those guys not getting valuable playoff experience now? Mantha's been sent down, and Athanasiou, Pulkkinen, and Jurco will likely see relatively few minutes in this series. You're playing with house money in a year where everyone was bracing for the streak to be broken altogether up until the final day of the Wings' season, and are still underdogs against a banged-up Tampa team. There's little reason not to turn the young guns loose, see what they can do, and get them a bit of experience now instead of going into next season (and presumably next year's playoffs) with as many question marks. What is there to lose? A second-round exit, as opposed to a first-round knockout? Is there really any guarantee that this team couldn't get to that same point with Mantha, Pullkinen and Athanasiou getting significant ice time over the veterans?
But that just lines up with Holland's philosophy over the last several years. The kids aren't the answer. They're just "spare parts." And in years past, when you could lure any free agent to Detroit with a massive payday, that might have worked. But those days are over. And now that the salary cap doesn't allow for that to happen, Holland has been content instead to hand out bloated deals to role players that don't fill their roles particularly well. (See: Ericcson, Jonathan; Quincey, Kyle.)
Meanwhile in Chicago, the Bowman regime has produced three Stanley Cups in six years, and hasn't missed the playoffs since 2008, despite having had to rebuild the team three times in that span to remain under the cap. Steve Yzerman's new team in Tampa Bay has made the Stanley Cup finals more recently than Detroit. Even the Dallas Stars are looking promising under Jim Nill, the man responsible for much of the great drafting of this organization's past.
Looking back, it's becoming increasingly evident that Detroit let the wrong front-office guys walk away. And as such, the Red Wings find themselves in a rather challenging situation this off-season.
Is Ken Holland the man to get them through it?
Given that he's the main reason they're in this spot in the first place, it's hard to be optimistic about that.
But given that he's undoubtedly going to be allowed to make the attempt, one can only hope that he doesn't put this team in a worse situation down the road by staying the present course.
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