This is the matchup no Red Wings fan wanted to see this year.
Before the last week or two of the regular season, at which point even making it into the playoffs was in doubt, the one thing most could agree on was that Tampa Bay was the last team anybody wanted to face in the first round.
That hasn't exactly changed, but that's what happens when your team just stops trying in March and April.
And as such, the Wings find themselves going up against the highest scoring offense in the league in the first round. Steve Stamkos leads the team in scoring by a pretty wide margin, but he's hardly the only major scoring threat on this team; Tyler Johnson has proven to be a revelation as well, and the Lightning are a fairly well-balanced offensive team, in that all of their top 6 forwards are fairly dangerous. The same can be said of Detroit's top 6, if not more so; no one player really has dominated the scoring as Stamkos has for Tampa, but the total scoring output of their top 6 falls short of the Lightning's by about 20 goals, while each team's top 6 were responsible for about 59% of each team's overall scoring. Tampa definitely has the edge on the penalty kill, as the Wings took a good 30 more penalties on the season, so the success rate there, 3% greater for the Bolts, doesn't mean much. But Detroit led the league in power play goals with 70, and it wasn't even close; Tampa, by comparison, had 53, good for 7th in the league.
The fact that the Wings may actually have a better defense than Tampa doesn't so much indicate anything particularly good about the Wings' D-men, than emphasize just what a patched-together mess Tampa's has been. Anton Stralman is the only defenseman who has played every game for the Lightning this season. Braydon Coburn only played four games after being acquired from Philly due to a foot injury, and wasn't even expected to make this series until earlier today. Jason Garrison is still out with an upper body injury, and he's the only other defenseman with 60 or more games to his credit this season. And for the Wings, the addition of Marek Zidlicky at the deadline and Alexey Marchenko being slotted into the lineup over the oft-careless play of Brendan Smith provide solid right-handed shots on a defensive core that otherwise lacks them.
It's hard to argue against giving Petr Mrazek the start in Game 1: he's been the superior goalie for much of the year, and it's better to have him start and Howard start later if Mrazek should falter down the stretch, than to start Howard, have him tank, and be potentially forced to put the pressure of coming in down 0-2 in the series on the shoulders of a guy without a single playoff start to his name. Tampa's Ben Bishop has as much playoff experience as Mrazek, but doesn't have an all-star backup waiting in the wings, though Andrei Vasilevsky is a solid goaltender in his own right. There's something to be said for having a veteran who can come in and put out the fire should your starter falter, there's also something to be said for having a starter who's not constantly under a microscope.
I want to believe in this team. I really do.
But there just isn't a particularly compelling reason to do so, unless Detroit can stay disciplined, stay out of the box, and play some capable defense. This isn't a particularly high-flying offense when at even-strength, and it remains to be seen whether the goaltending will be able to steal a game or two, which the Wings desperately need them to do. There's just too much that has to go right for the Wings to overcome Tampa's powerful offense.
Prediction: Lightning in 7.
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