Somewhere, Jon Daniels and Dayton Moore are laughing their asses off. Dave Dombrowski has done something that hasn't happened since the deal that sent Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jacque Jones: he got absolutely fleeced in a trade.
It was fairly obvious from the start of this offseason that at least one starting pitcher was going to get traded. Dombrowski had made it clear that Drew Smyly would be in the rotation come 2014, so somebody had to go. And sure enough, it was Doug Fister that got shipped out to Washington, to join an already solid pitching staff in Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and some other guy. But the return was far less than anyone could have anticipated.
Keep in mind before we get too far into this: Doug Fister is a top-25 pitcher in this league, without question. Per Fangraphs, he ranks 9th in WAR, 13th in FIP, and 20th in ERA over the last three seasons. A lot has been made by factions of this fanbase that we're overvaluing Fister, but those numbers don't lie. And the free-agent market for pitchers is so bad, that the Royals just gave Jason Vargas $32 milion, and the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco $49 million! Hell, Scott Kazmir was just handed a two year, $22 million deal! Not to mention, the last time a pitcher of Doug's caliber was traded, he commanded the best position player in Kansas City's farm system and a decent pitching prospect as well. Fister is projected to make, at most, $15 million over the next two years. That being said, what does a top cost-controlled pitcher in this league get you in trade?
Not very much, evidently. The players expected to make an immediate impact are filler at best. Steve Lombardozzi makes yesterday's signing of Don Kelly entirely redundant. He had an OPS+ of 69 last year (a league-average player's is 100, and Kelly's was 76), and hit .259/.278/.338 in that same season. Technically he can play second, third, short, and left, but he doesn't have the arm to play any of them capably, save for maybe second. Then, there's Ian Krol, whose upside is 2012 Phil Coke. In 27 innings last year, Krol had a 3.95 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 28 hits and 22 strikeouts. Not particularly impressive numbers, and his splits against righties are absolutely dreadful, making his ceiling as a LOOGY and not much more.
Then we come to Robbie Ray, the centerpiece of this deal that Trader Dave is high on, for some reason. Ranked #7 in the Nationals' system, it's hard to see why. His ceiling seems to be #3 starter, but it's almost as likely that he ends up in the bullpen as well. At any rate, he's not expected to be major-league ready until 2015 at the earliest. He, too, has some rather ugly platoon splits, not to mention command issues.
It makes you wonder, how he couldn't do any better. If you believe ESPN's Keith Law, there's several other GM's around this league wondering the same thing. This is the best we could get? No Taylor Jordan? No Drew Storen? No Tyler Clippard, even?
Then, what do the Tigers do with the savings from Fister's deal? Why, go and overpay for a 39-year old closer coming off a career year, of course. To be fair, I like the Joe Nathan signing a lot, and it gives this team the shutdown closer it really hasn't had since... I dunno, Willie Hernandez? Sure, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney had their spots, but they also had some abysmal years as well. Nathan, on the other hand, hasn't had a down year since the Giants converted him from a starter in 2002, save for a shortened 2011 campaign in which he was coming off Tommy John surgery.
The Nathan signing is definitely one that needed to happen, given the Tigers' complete lack of a bullpen at the moment. But that said, let's hope that Trader Dave isn't done working magic yet. Because if this team goes into 2014 with Andy Dirks as its everyday left fielder, and Coke, Krol, and Luke Putkonen as it's primary go-to bullpen pieces, next season's gonna hurt a hell of a lot.
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