Sunday, November 24, 2013

The Fielder-Kinsler Trade, And Why It Needed To Happen

     You hate to see it end like this. But at the same time, you knew it had to, lest he become the most hated Tiger since Juan Gonzalez donned the Old English D 15 years ago.

     Whether it was by sorcery, or compromising photos of Texas GM Jon Daniels, Dave Dombrowski managed to do the only thing that seemed a more insurmountable task than acquiring Prince Fielder in the first place: he traded Fielder, got back a top-5-in-MLB second baseman, and did so without eating more than $30 million of the bloated contract that landed him in Detroit to begin with. And it's hard to argue against the fact that this was something that needed to happen for the future of the franchise.

     Certainly, the deal that brought him here was, to put it mildly, a massive overpay on the part of the Tigers. $24 million a year over 9 years, for a guy we all knew wouldn't be worth anywhere near that the further we got into the deal, and would most likely disappear in the playoffs like he did in Milwaukee. But at the time, this team was in a tight spot. They needed a bat to replace Victor Martinez in the worst way, and we'd all but dismissed the possibility of ever bringing Prince to town. "They can't afford him," we said. "He'd never want to play in Detroit," we said.

    Then, it happened. And for a moment, logic and reason went out the window. To hell with the ridiculous contract, the prodigal son of one of the greatest power hitters this franchise has ever seen has returned home, to the team where his father had launched 50 bombs in a season, at a time where that just didn't happen, while he launched batting practice balls out of the park at the age of 12. Certainly, if you're a Detroit fan, you want to see this team go all the way no matter what. But given the history the Fielders had with this organization, it would have been something that much more special for Prince to have been a part of it.

     It's never that easy in this town, though. Cecil knew it all too well, and was shipped off to the Yankees having never gotten a taste of the playoffs here. Prince made it twice while in Detroit, but his bat went cold both times, going 1-for-14 during the 2012 World Series, and failing to drive in a single run during this year's playoffs. Even worse, he hit something of a slump in the regular season as well, which soured Tigers' fans on him. He didn't exactly help matters in interviews, coming across as somewhat detached and unemotional, and it really seemed towards the end as though he didn't really want to be here.

     And the resentment on both sides would have only built more and more if he were to have stayed. Tigers' fans can be absolutely brutal at times, and Prince was already starting to draw their ire, even before his playoff disappearance this season. Now, extend that for the next 7 seasons, throw in the fact that he'll be getting paid $24 million at the age of 36, by which time you'll be left with an essentially immobile DH, as if he's that far from such a fate already; and the likely possibility that you'd have to let not only Max Scherzer walk, but you'd also be looking at Miguel Cabrera's likely departure after the 2015 season as well. You can't tell me that Tigers' fans wouldn't harbor quite a bit of resentment towards the guy whose deal might have just cost them the best hitter in baseball.

     But just as improbably as he arrived, he was gone, in a deal that seems almost too ridiculous even for fantasy baseball. And not only have the Tigers acquired one of the top 5 second basemen in the major leagues, but they did it while only sending $30 million dollars to Texas. And you thought the Vernon Wells trade to the Angels was absurdly lopsided.

     Which brings us to the return on this trade. Ian Kinsler is no Prince Fielder in the power department, but thankfully he is also no Prince Fielder in the defense or baserunning department. Even in a down 2013 season, Fielder hit twice as many home runs, 40 more RBI, and an OPS 70 points higher than Kinsler. But Kinsler has 15 stolen bases and was good for 15 Defensive Runs Saved, as opposed to Prince's -13, and is overall a slightly more valuable player by war, 2.5 to 2.3. So it's about a wash.

     But the Tigers didn't acquire Ian Kinsler to replace Prince Fielder. He's here to replace Omar Infante, and indeed, he's been a more valuable second baseman than Infante in the last two seasons, with a 5.5 WAR to Omar's 3.3. And really, it's entirely unfair to expect that he's going to make up for Fielder's offensive production. That will depend on what moves are made from here on out. Because make no mistake, there will be more moves made, and nothing is out the realm of possibility anymore. Sure, Jhonny Peralta has signed with the Cardinals for the next 4 years, and Jacoby Ellsbury is not happening (or is he?), no matter what anyone says. But if you think that this team is going to roll into 2014 with Nick Castellanos as its starting third baseman and Andy Dirks starting in left, then you probably believe that Trader Dave was serious about starting Hernan Perez at second had this deal not gone down.

     Trading Prince Fielder isn't going to solve all the issues this team has going into next season. But it was a good place, and an entirely necessary one, to start. And if we've learned one thing about Dave Dombrowski by now, it's that he's not even close to being done yet.

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