(Editor's note: So, I'm once again guilty of neglecting the blog for weeks at a time. And as such, today's gonna be a day-long hate-fest, with all the ranting that I, or the two people who still read this, can handle. I wanted to do this on Monday, to coincide with Festivus and all that, but my real job got in the way of that plan. But that doesn't mean that I still haven't got a lot of problems with you people, nor that you're not gonna hear about 'em. So, here goes.)
This is what I get for making bold predictions about the Detroit Lions.
Hell, this is what I get for having the slightest bit of faith in the Detroit Lions.
I wrote it in this very space, after the Turkey Day victory over the Packers, so I guess I'll take my beating for it now:
And at the risk of looking like an idiot come the end of this season, it's bold prediction time: The Detroit Lions will be your 2013 NFC North champs.
Obviously, that won't be happening, as Sunday's loss to the G-Men guarantees that no matter how badly Chicago and Green Bay tried to hand them the division on a silver platter, the Lions won't take it now. I could go into the details of Sunday's choke job, but what's the point? You already know what happened, even if you didn't watch the game: Matthew Stafford turned over the ball a ton and threw a pick-six (in this case, to a guy who was in jail the night before); Reggie Bush fumbled at a key point in the game; Calvin Johnson dropped a pass, and is still trying to play through injury; the defense made some no-name receiver look like Calvin Johnson (seriously, who the hell is Jerrel Jernigan?), and Jim Schwartz was awful at managing the play clock again. I could write this very recap at any point in the last month, and it would be entirely accurate.
And that is all the more reason the Jim Schwartz era in Detroit needs to meet it's merciful end.
The same problems that have plagued this team all season, and the last few seasons, were all too visible
on Sunday. And nothing has really been done to correct them; in the case of Stafford, at least, they're actually getting worse. Even his biggest apologists can't argue that Stafford hasn't regressed this season. And considering how great he looked in that 2011 season which ended in their first playoff appearance in over a decade, it's not a lack of talent on his part. Whether it's bad mechanics, or something else, clearly a new coach is needed that can fix a broken quarterback.
The NFC North was essentially gift-wrapped for the Lions this season. They actually had a solid draft; Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, and Larry Warford have all made an immediate impact, and they found an undrafted gem in Joe Fauria. There were even some decent free-agent signings in Reggie Bush and Glover Quin. Most importantly, the only other competitive teams in their division lose their starting quarterbacks and other key players for large chunks of the season. And yet... here we sit, on the outside looking in, as Green Bay and Chicago play Sunday to decide which team wants it less. That is inexcusable, and the entire coaching staff should be shown the door immediately following the Minnesota game on Sunday.
There's no reason the Lions should have had another second-half collapse this season. All the talent was there. On paper, this team was as good as any in the league. Yet, they couldn't manage to string together four consecutive quarters of good football if their lives depended on it. How many times have we watched this team blow what should be a fairly safe lead in the fourth quarter this year? Since their win in Chicago, it's been five. And at some point, that has to come back on the coaches. Clearly the players have the ability, but there's something else, whether it's an offense that is, at times, overly conservative late in games, or stupid penalties that bring a successful drive to a screeching halt, or hand a first down to the opposing team, that keeps them from closing out games. And that last part comes back to the clubhouse culture, it's something that has reared its ugly head many times during the Schwartz regime, it's something that really came to the forefront in the arrest-plagued 2012 offseason, and it's something that falls squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff.
How long can you really give a guy to turn around a franchise, even one that sunk to the depths that it did during Matt Millen's tyrannical reign of terror? And how long can you continue to make excuses for this team based on what happened five or more years ago? Wake up: It's not 2008 anymore. Only three players from that roster are even still on this team: Calvin, Andre Fluellen, and Dominic Raiola. What happened back then should have no bearing on what this team does now, nor the expectations that should be set for it. You've had virtually complete turnover of the roster since then, five years of solid, if not spectacular, drafting, and a GM that's given you a roster that provides you every opportunity to win. And yet... here we sit, on the outside looking in. And somehow, Schwartz doesn't consider this to be a failure.
In the post-Millen era, mediocrity is no longer good enough, and underachievement cannot be tolerated. And if Martin Mayhew and the Fords want to send that message, they know what they need to do.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Despite Nathan Signing, Fister Trade Still Among Dombrowski's Worst
Somewhere, Jon Daniels and Dayton Moore are laughing their asses off. Dave Dombrowski has done something that hasn't happened since the deal that sent Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jacque Jones: he got absolutely fleeced in a trade.
It was fairly obvious from the start of this offseason that at least one starting pitcher was going to get traded. Dombrowski had made it clear that Drew Smyly would be in the rotation come 2014, so somebody had to go. And sure enough, it was Doug Fister that got shipped out to Washington, to join an already solid pitching staff in Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and some other guy. But the return was far less than anyone could have anticipated.
Keep in mind before we get too far into this: Doug Fister is a top-25 pitcher in this league, without question. Per Fangraphs, he ranks 9th in WAR, 13th in FIP, and 20th in ERA over the last three seasons. A lot has been made by factions of this fanbase that we're overvaluing Fister, but those numbers don't lie. And the free-agent market for pitchers is so bad, that the Royals just gave Jason Vargas $32 milion, and the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco $49 million! Hell, Scott Kazmir was just handed a two year, $22 million deal! Not to mention, the last time a pitcher of Doug's caliber was traded, he commanded the best position player in Kansas City's farm system and a decent pitching prospect as well. Fister is projected to make, at most, $15 million over the next two years. That being said, what does a top cost-controlled pitcher in this league get you in trade?
Not very much, evidently. The players expected to make an immediate impact are filler at best. Steve Lombardozzi makes yesterday's signing of Don Kelly entirely redundant. He had an OPS+ of 69 last year (a league-average player's is 100, and Kelly's was 76), and hit .259/.278/.338 in that same season. Technically he can play second, third, short, and left, but he doesn't have the arm to play any of them capably, save for maybe second. Then, there's Ian Krol, whose upside is 2012 Phil Coke. In 27 innings last year, Krol had a 3.95 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 28 hits and 22 strikeouts. Not particularly impressive numbers, and his splits against righties are absolutely dreadful, making his ceiling as a LOOGY and not much more.
Then we come to Robbie Ray, the centerpiece of this deal that Trader Dave is high on, for some reason. Ranked #7 in the Nationals' system, it's hard to see why. His ceiling seems to be #3 starter, but it's almost as likely that he ends up in the bullpen as well. At any rate, he's not expected to be major-league ready until 2015 at the earliest. He, too, has some rather ugly platoon splits, not to mention command issues.
It makes you wonder, how he couldn't do any better. If you believe ESPN's Keith Law, there's several other GM's around this league wondering the same thing. This is the best we could get? No Taylor Jordan? No Drew Storen? No Tyler Clippard, even?
Then, what do the Tigers do with the savings from Fister's deal? Why, go and overpay for a 39-year old closer coming off a career year, of course. To be fair, I like the Joe Nathan signing a lot, and it gives this team the shutdown closer it really hasn't had since... I dunno, Willie Hernandez? Sure, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney had their spots, but they also had some abysmal years as well. Nathan, on the other hand, hasn't had a down year since the Giants converted him from a starter in 2002, save for a shortened 2011 campaign in which he was coming off Tommy John surgery.
The Nathan signing is definitely one that needed to happen, given the Tigers' complete lack of a bullpen at the moment. But that said, let's hope that Trader Dave isn't done working magic yet. Because if this team goes into 2014 with Andy Dirks as its everyday left fielder, and Coke, Krol, and Luke Putkonen as it's primary go-to bullpen pieces, next season's gonna hurt a hell of a lot.
It was fairly obvious from the start of this offseason that at least one starting pitcher was going to get traded. Dombrowski had made it clear that Drew Smyly would be in the rotation come 2014, so somebody had to go. And sure enough, it was Doug Fister that got shipped out to Washington, to join an already solid pitching staff in Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and some other guy. But the return was far less than anyone could have anticipated.
Keep in mind before we get too far into this: Doug Fister is a top-25 pitcher in this league, without question. Per Fangraphs, he ranks 9th in WAR, 13th in FIP, and 20th in ERA over the last three seasons. A lot has been made by factions of this fanbase that we're overvaluing Fister, but those numbers don't lie. And the free-agent market for pitchers is so bad, that the Royals just gave Jason Vargas $32 milion, and the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco $49 million! Hell, Scott Kazmir was just handed a two year, $22 million deal! Not to mention, the last time a pitcher of Doug's caliber was traded, he commanded the best position player in Kansas City's farm system and a decent pitching prospect as well. Fister is projected to make, at most, $15 million over the next two years. That being said, what does a top cost-controlled pitcher in this league get you in trade?
Not very much, evidently. The players expected to make an immediate impact are filler at best. Steve Lombardozzi makes yesterday's signing of Don Kelly entirely redundant. He had an OPS+ of 69 last year (a league-average player's is 100, and Kelly's was 76), and hit .259/.278/.338 in that same season. Technically he can play second, third, short, and left, but he doesn't have the arm to play any of them capably, save for maybe second. Then, there's Ian Krol, whose upside is 2012 Phil Coke. In 27 innings last year, Krol had a 3.95 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, 28 hits and 22 strikeouts. Not particularly impressive numbers, and his splits against righties are absolutely dreadful, making his ceiling as a LOOGY and not much more.
Then we come to Robbie Ray, the centerpiece of this deal that Trader Dave is high on, for some reason. Ranked #7 in the Nationals' system, it's hard to see why. His ceiling seems to be #3 starter, but it's almost as likely that he ends up in the bullpen as well. At any rate, he's not expected to be major-league ready until 2015 at the earliest. He, too, has some rather ugly platoon splits, not to mention command issues.
It makes you wonder, how he couldn't do any better. If you believe ESPN's Keith Law, there's several other GM's around this league wondering the same thing. This is the best we could get? No Taylor Jordan? No Drew Storen? No Tyler Clippard, even?
Then, what do the Tigers do with the savings from Fister's deal? Why, go and overpay for a 39-year old closer coming off a career year, of course. To be fair, I like the Joe Nathan signing a lot, and it gives this team the shutdown closer it really hasn't had since... I dunno, Willie Hernandez? Sure, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney had their spots, but they also had some abysmal years as well. Nathan, on the other hand, hasn't had a down year since the Giants converted him from a starter in 2002, save for a shortened 2011 campaign in which he was coming off Tommy John surgery.
The Nathan signing is definitely one that needed to happen, given the Tigers' complete lack of a bullpen at the moment. But that said, let's hope that Trader Dave isn't done working magic yet. Because if this team goes into 2014 with Andy Dirks as its everyday left fielder, and Coke, Krol, and Luke Putkonen as it's primary go-to bullpen pieces, next season's gonna hurt a hell of a lot.
Monday, December 2, 2013
Disjointed Thoughts: On The Rivalry, The Title Game, And Other B1G Musings...
While I normally don't like doing these sort of catch-all posts, I realize it's kinda necessary if I really want to get my thoughts on the weekend in college football out there before the next weekend in college football. Story of my life: too much to write about, so little time to do it. Therefore: bullet points!
-The Big Game. Give credit to the Wolverines for making this far closer than it had any right to be. The offense got about as aggressive and creative as we've seen this year. Even as injured as he was, Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the running game came up with 152 yards of their own. It leads one to question: Where the hell has this been all season? Al Borges couldn't have pulled out any of these plays when Michigan was still playing for something? Clearly if they can hang with the 2nd-ranked team in the nation, they should have had no problems against Akron and Northwestern, right?
-The play. Despite what many will tell you, going for the two-point conversion was absolutely the right move to make. Given that nobody expected this game to be this close at the end, Devin Gardner was near death, and you essentially had no kicker, going for the win in regulation was the only option. Unfortunately, the execution left much to be desired, and it was only made worse by the fact that they ran a play that the Buckeyes saw coming from a mile away, which linebacker Ryan Shazier admitted after the game. Even more so when you consider that OSU called a timeout to adjust to the play they knew was coming, and the Wolverines came back onto the field in the exact same formation, having changed absolutely nothing. And they wonder why the play failed so miserably.
-The decision. Much has been made of Taylor Lewan's claim that Brady Hoke polled the seniors as to whether they should go for the two points. The players all agreed that they should, and this has been held up as proof that Hoke isn't a good coach in his own right. And while there's probably a case to be made for that, this isn't it. Clearly he knew he was going for two before using his ask-the-audience lifeline during the OSU timeout, and would have done so either way, so just stop it.
-The vote of confidence. Much as Dave Brandon gave it to Brady Hoke earlier in the week, Hoke did to his staff today, announcing that everyone will return next year. Whether Dave Brandon sees it that way is yet to be determined, but if so, that raises the bar higher than at any point in Hoke's tenure here. Even a sacrificial offering of Borges or Darrell Funk would probably buy Hoke more time to right the ship, but if he does indeed stay the course, the only acceptable outcome in the 2014 season can be winning the Legends/whatever-the-hell-they-name-the-division next year. Anything less should result in Hoke and his entire staff getting the boot. No excuses. This team hasn't made any progress since his first season, when he took a team comprised mostly of RichRod's players to the Sugar Bowl.
-The B1G Game. If you're Michigan State, you should be damn thankful right now that the Wolverines just gave you the blueprints on how to beat Ohio State in next weekend's conference championship game. The Buckeye pass defense had no answer for Devin Gardner all afternoon, and the Wolverines' pass defense managed to neutralize Braxton Miller's passing game, but couldn't do much to stop him and Carlos Hyde from running all over them. But, while Ohio State has the #1 rushing offense in the country (Hyde by himself has put up 7.8 yards per carry this season), Michigan State just happens to have the #1 rushing defense, allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.23) by any team in the last 4 years. If Connor Cook can buy himself enough time in the pocket to make big plays, and the Spartan defense can contain the running game, you might just be looking at an upset in Indy this weekend.
-The Big Game. Give credit to the Wolverines for making this far closer than it had any right to be. The offense got about as aggressive and creative as we've seen this year. Even as injured as he was, Devin Gardner threw for 451 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the running game came up with 152 yards of their own. It leads one to question: Where the hell has this been all season? Al Borges couldn't have pulled out any of these plays when Michigan was still playing for something? Clearly if they can hang with the 2nd-ranked team in the nation, they should have had no problems against Akron and Northwestern, right?
-The play. Despite what many will tell you, going for the two-point conversion was absolutely the right move to make. Given that nobody expected this game to be this close at the end, Devin Gardner was near death, and you essentially had no kicker, going for the win in regulation was the only option. Unfortunately, the execution left much to be desired, and it was only made worse by the fact that they ran a play that the Buckeyes saw coming from a mile away, which linebacker Ryan Shazier admitted after the game. Even more so when you consider that OSU called a timeout to adjust to the play they knew was coming, and the Wolverines came back onto the field in the exact same formation, having changed absolutely nothing. And they wonder why the play failed so miserably.
-The decision. Much has been made of Taylor Lewan's claim that Brady Hoke polled the seniors as to whether they should go for the two points. The players all agreed that they should, and this has been held up as proof that Hoke isn't a good coach in his own right. And while there's probably a case to be made for that, this isn't it. Clearly he knew he was going for two before using his ask-the-audience lifeline during the OSU timeout, and would have done so either way, so just stop it.
-The vote of confidence. Much as Dave Brandon gave it to Brady Hoke earlier in the week, Hoke did to his staff today, announcing that everyone will return next year. Whether Dave Brandon sees it that way is yet to be determined, but if so, that raises the bar higher than at any point in Hoke's tenure here. Even a sacrificial offering of Borges or Darrell Funk would probably buy Hoke more time to right the ship, but if he does indeed stay the course, the only acceptable outcome in the 2014 season can be winning the Legends/whatever-the-hell-they-name-the-division next year. Anything less should result in Hoke and his entire staff getting the boot. No excuses. This team hasn't made any progress since his first season, when he took a team comprised mostly of RichRod's players to the Sugar Bowl.
-The B1G Game. If you're Michigan State, you should be damn thankful right now that the Wolverines just gave you the blueprints on how to beat Ohio State in next weekend's conference championship game. The Buckeye pass defense had no answer for Devin Gardner all afternoon, and the Wolverines' pass defense managed to neutralize Braxton Miller's passing game, but couldn't do much to stop him and Carlos Hyde from running all over them. But, while Ohio State has the #1 rushing offense in the country (Hyde by himself has put up 7.8 yards per carry this season), Michigan State just happens to have the #1 rushing defense, allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.23) by any team in the last 4 years. If Connor Cook can buy himself enough time in the pocket to make big plays, and the Spartan defense can contain the running game, you might just be looking at an upset in Indy this weekend.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Turkey Day Game: Scumbags 40, Packers 10.
Just when you think this team's down for the count, they go and put on a performance like Thursday's.
And make no mistake, this was a statement the Lions desperately needed to make.
But early on, it didn't look as though they would. The turnover-happy offense from the Tampa Bay game held over into the first half of this week, with Reggie Bush fumbling the ball inside the Green Bay 10 on the Lions' first drive of the game. After a pair of field goals tied the game at 3, Green Bay' Nick Perry strips the ball from Matt Stafford on the opening play of the next drive to put the Pack up 10-3. On the next drive, Stafford gets picked off for the first of two times in this game, but the Packers failed to score on the ensuing drive.
At this point, one could certainly be forgiven for thinking the Lions had learned nothing from the last two weeks. But that would be overlooking an absolutely dominant performance by a D-line that has been greatly helped by the return of Ziggy Ansah, and the fact that Detroit had outgained the Packers 340-43 at the half, which would seem to indicate a team that was suffering from dumb luck, and maybe the lack of a competent kicker. But we'll get to that later.
Sure enough, luck would finally swing the Lions' way in the second half, as Green Bay wouldn't score another point. After the first Stafford interception, the Detroit D-line wouldn't allow the Packers to move the chains on their next five drives, while the offense continued putting a show of their own. This was as good of a performance as this offensive line has put together in a long time; Stafford was only sacked once, and the run offense put up its best numbers in almost a decade, 241 yards on 43 carries. To put that in perspective, the Lions haven't gained over 200 rushing yards in a game since 2004. Despite the early fumble, Bush averaged 5.9 yards per carry on Thursday's game, with 117 yards over 20 carries.
Even the secondary, which has drawn the ire of many over the last few weeks, looks to have greatly improved, particularly Darius Slay, who looked damn solid today. Yes, I'm aware of the garbage-time pickoff by James Jones. But Slay still put himself in good position to pick it off, and it's more a credit to Jones' aggressiveness than a slight on Slay's playmaking.
And you really can't say enough about that defensive line. The Dirtbags came up with 7 sacks and two fumble recoveries, allowing a grand total of 24 rushing yards on 15 carries, not to mention Ndamukong Suh dragging Matt Flynn down in his own endzone for the safety which, if it didn't put the nail in the coffin, it certainly signified the point at which the Packers stopped trying. Nothing "dirty" about any of that. And who can honestly say that, even without the time missed to injury, that rookie Ansah would already have 7 sacks to his credit this year, considering the guy he replaced at his position, Kyle VandenBosch, had all of 3.5 last year?
And you really can't say enough about that defensive line. The Dirtbags came up with 7 sacks and two fumble recoveries, allowing a grand total of 24 rushing yards on 15 carries, not to mention Ndamukong Suh dragging Matt Flynn down in his own endzone for the safety which, if it didn't put the nail in the coffin, it certainly signified the point at which the Packers stopped trying. Nothing "dirty" about any of that. And who can honestly say that, even without the time missed to injury, that rookie Ansah would already have 7 sacks to his credit this year, considering the guy he replaced at his position, Kyle VandenBosch, had all of 3.5 last year?
Somewhere in Green Bay, Josh Sitton is no doubt wishing he'd never opened his mouth.
For all that, though, there's still some issues to be addressed here. I've gone on about the turnovers and interceptions these last few weeks, and at the half, it really seemed like this was going to be another game blown by Detroit's inability to hold on to the ball. But in the second half, save for a pickoff in the endzone by Sam Shields in the third quarter, those fears were mostly unfounded.
Also, can we admit that signing David Akers may not have been a good idea? Missing a 31-yarder Thursday, making him 8-for-13 on the year in the 30-49 yard range, is not making a strong case for his continued presence on this team. And while I'm not entirely sold on the "bring back Kickalicious" bandwagon just yet, I'd rather take the relatively inexperienced guy over the past-his-prime guy who can't get it done. You can at least make the case that the young guy will eventually improve, but does anyone really think that an older, declining kicker is really going to suddenly turn it around, given that Akers has been on this slide since his days in San Francisco?
Also, can we admit that signing David Akers may not have been a good idea? Missing a 31-yarder Thursday, making him 8-for-13 on the year in the 30-49 yard range, is not making a strong case for his continued presence on this team. And while I'm not entirely sold on the "bring back Kickalicious" bandwagon just yet, I'd rather take the relatively inexperienced guy over the past-his-prime guy who can't get it done. You can at least make the case that the young guy will eventually improve, but does anyone really think that an older, declining kicker is really going to suddenly turn it around, given that Akers has been on this slide since his days in San Francisco?
All that aside, this is the statement game the Detroit Lions needed. If they'd lost Thursday, it's hard to envision a scenario in which the Lions pull out of the tailspin and salvage things before Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler return from their respective injuries. But now, without a single win in their last 5 games, that might not be enough to stop the bleeding for Green Bay.
I said earlier this week that this game would tell us a lot about how this season would shake out. That a loss would have sealed the fate of this season and this coaching staff. And while I'm still not a huge fan of retaining the entire staff with anything less than a 10-6 record, Thursday showed us again that there's a lot of talent here, and if they keep it together without making so many mistakes, this team can be a legitimate threat. And at the risk of looking like an idiot come the end of this season, it's bold prediction time: The Detroit Lions will be your 2013 NFC North champs.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Delayed Reaction: Lions v. Bucs, And The Most Important Game Of The Season...
Do you have any idea how hard it is to not start this post without invoking the phrase "Same Ol' Lions"? Difficult enough that I couldn't even make it through the first sentence. It's seemingly the default reaction to any Lions loss, particularly one as crushing as this.
But for all that phrase implies, it doesn't do justice to what happened on Sunday.
It seemed that at every possible turn, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were trying to give this game to Detroit, and the Lions were doing their best to return the favor. A pair of three-and-outs started things off, and on the Lions next possession. a Stafford pass to Nate Burleson was picked off. But Tampa Bay couldn't take full advantage, even with a penalty on Nick Fairley that moved the chains for the Bucs on 3rd-and-15. Thankfully at that point, Ziggy Ansah showed us just how much he was missed on this team, sacking Mike Glennon for 10 yards and forcing a field goal.
Once again, the secondary was all but nonexistent. Chris Houston should probably be out of a job tomorrow, but does it really matter? Whether you put Darius Slay, Rashean Mathis, or Don Carey in, none of them have been able to do much of anything for any length of time. Houston has proven that he has no place on this team by failing to cover Tiquan Underwood worth a damn on what ended up being an 85-yard touchdown pass that gave the Bucs the lead for good.
It really can't be understated how much the Bucs didn't want to win this game, but did anyway. Twice in the 4th quarter, the Lions' defense forced Tampa to settle for a field goal attempt, and both times Rian Lindell missed wide left. So what do the Lions do to capitalize on this? Why, turn the ball right back over, of course! After the first attempt at 35 yards, Kris Durham loses the ball attempting to get some extra yardage on a third-down conversion, and Tampa recovered at the Detroit 37. Then, after Glennon gets sacked by Willie Young and Lindell misses on a 50-yard attempt, the Lions fight back to the Tampa Bay 28, only to have Calvin Johnson lose control of the ball at the worst possible time, with Tampa safety Kelcie McCray tipping it right into the hands of Johnthan Banks to end the game.
And certainly, Matthew Stafford can't be absolved of blame here. Not by a long shot. And his insistence on forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson (see: the throw in the third quarter that got picked of by Tampa's Keith Tandy), missing open receivers, and rushing his throws under pressure (see: the throw behind Brandon Pettigrew that Leonard Johnson picked off for a Bucs touchdown) are making the case that Stafford is simply not an elite quarterback in this league. Elite QB's aren't nearly as careless as Stafford is with the ball, especially in late-game situations where there's all-but-guaranteed points on the board, as was the case on the last drive of the game. If you're going to just throw the ball up for grabs at the opponent's 28-yard line, when a field goal sends the game into overtime, you'd better be damn sure your man's going to come away with the ball. That's not a situation you take that kind of a chance with.
No doubt Tampa Bay fans are as confused about all of this as you are. A month ago, everybody had turned on Greg Schiano, and Mike Glennon was just a placeholder until the Bucs draft Teddy Bridgewater next year. Hell, even after winning their last two games coming into Sunday, they were predicting a blowout at the hands of the Lions. Now, barring a late season collapse, Glennon might just be their new franchise QB and Schiano might have just bought himself another year to right the ship. The pitchforks and torches have been put back into storage for the time being.
Meanwhile, if the Lions had managed to gain any goodwill this season, that has all but evaporated now. Giving away games to teams that you not only should beat, but absolutely need to beat, tends to do that. You can go on all you want about how Tampa Bay isn't as bad as their now 3-8 record indicated, or that Glennon has been proven to be a more-than-serviceable NFL quarterback, or how they just somehow pull quality running backs out of thin air. But none of that matters: This is a game the Lions couldn't afford to lose, especially after the Pittsburgh loss last week. This should have been as easy of a game as they had left on their schedule. And they just couldn't stop tripping over themselves long enough to do it.
Suddenly, the Thanksgiving Day game takes on that much more significance. Win, and they stay atop the NFC North and keep hope alive. Lose, and you can probably kiss your playoff odds, and the coaching staff, goodbye. Let's be clear: the only reason this team is still atop this division is because your division rivals are running out second and third-string QB's. Period. In my mind, a healthy Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay well ahead of the division. And the only reason you have a shot of winning Thursday is because the Packers are throwing Matt Flynn out there. And with both Rodgers and Jay Cutler expected to return within the next few weeks, the margin for error is slimmer than ever.
There's no way around it: Thursday is the game the Lions absolutely, positively need to win if they want to make the playoffs, and if they want to hold back the "same ol' Lions" doubters, who seem to be making a stronger case each week. I know the eternal optimists out there are going to want to remind me that Detroit is still in first place in the division. However, taking into consideration how weak the division really is at present, how much of an advantage the Lions should have right now over Green Bay and Chicago injury-wise, and how soon that advantage might be coming to an end, that's not saying very much. And all of that makes the Thanksgiving Day game even more of a must-win.
Yes, the Lions should win tomorrow. But given the last two weeks, that means absolutely nothing.
But for all that phrase implies, it doesn't do justice to what happened on Sunday.
It seemed that at every possible turn, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were trying to give this game to Detroit, and the Lions were doing their best to return the favor. A pair of three-and-outs started things off, and on the Lions next possession. a Stafford pass to Nate Burleson was picked off. But Tampa Bay couldn't take full advantage, even with a penalty on Nick Fairley that moved the chains for the Bucs on 3rd-and-15. Thankfully at that point, Ziggy Ansah showed us just how much he was missed on this team, sacking Mike Glennon for 10 yards and forcing a field goal.
Once again, the secondary was all but nonexistent. Chris Houston should probably be out of a job tomorrow, but does it really matter? Whether you put Darius Slay, Rashean Mathis, or Don Carey in, none of them have been able to do much of anything for any length of time. Houston has proven that he has no place on this team by failing to cover Tiquan Underwood worth a damn on what ended up being an 85-yard touchdown pass that gave the Bucs the lead for good.
It really can't be understated how much the Bucs didn't want to win this game, but did anyway. Twice in the 4th quarter, the Lions' defense forced Tampa to settle for a field goal attempt, and both times Rian Lindell missed wide left. So what do the Lions do to capitalize on this? Why, turn the ball right back over, of course! After the first attempt at 35 yards, Kris Durham loses the ball attempting to get some extra yardage on a third-down conversion, and Tampa recovered at the Detroit 37. Then, after Glennon gets sacked by Willie Young and Lindell misses on a 50-yard attempt, the Lions fight back to the Tampa Bay 28, only to have Calvin Johnson lose control of the ball at the worst possible time, with Tampa safety Kelcie McCray tipping it right into the hands of Johnthan Banks to end the game.
And certainly, Matthew Stafford can't be absolved of blame here. Not by a long shot. And his insistence on forcing the ball to Calvin Johnson (see: the throw in the third quarter that got picked of by Tampa's Keith Tandy), missing open receivers, and rushing his throws under pressure (see: the throw behind Brandon Pettigrew that Leonard Johnson picked off for a Bucs touchdown) are making the case that Stafford is simply not an elite quarterback in this league. Elite QB's aren't nearly as careless as Stafford is with the ball, especially in late-game situations where there's all-but-guaranteed points on the board, as was the case on the last drive of the game. If you're going to just throw the ball up for grabs at the opponent's 28-yard line, when a field goal sends the game into overtime, you'd better be damn sure your man's going to come away with the ball. That's not a situation you take that kind of a chance with.
No doubt Tampa Bay fans are as confused about all of this as you are. A month ago, everybody had turned on Greg Schiano, and Mike Glennon was just a placeholder until the Bucs draft Teddy Bridgewater next year. Hell, even after winning their last two games coming into Sunday, they were predicting a blowout at the hands of the Lions. Now, barring a late season collapse, Glennon might just be their new franchise QB and Schiano might have just bought himself another year to right the ship. The pitchforks and torches have been put back into storage for the time being.
Meanwhile, if the Lions had managed to gain any goodwill this season, that has all but evaporated now. Giving away games to teams that you not only should beat, but absolutely need to beat, tends to do that. You can go on all you want about how Tampa Bay isn't as bad as their now 3-8 record indicated, or that Glennon has been proven to be a more-than-serviceable NFL quarterback, or how they just somehow pull quality running backs out of thin air. But none of that matters: This is a game the Lions couldn't afford to lose, especially after the Pittsburgh loss last week. This should have been as easy of a game as they had left on their schedule. And they just couldn't stop tripping over themselves long enough to do it.
Suddenly, the Thanksgiving Day game takes on that much more significance. Win, and they stay atop the NFC North and keep hope alive. Lose, and you can probably kiss your playoff odds, and the coaching staff, goodbye. Let's be clear: the only reason this team is still atop this division is because your division rivals are running out second and third-string QB's. Period. In my mind, a healthy Aaron Rodgers leads Green Bay well ahead of the division. And the only reason you have a shot of winning Thursday is because the Packers are throwing Matt Flynn out there. And with both Rodgers and Jay Cutler expected to return within the next few weeks, the margin for error is slimmer than ever.
There's no way around it: Thursday is the game the Lions absolutely, positively need to win if they want to make the playoffs, and if they want to hold back the "same ol' Lions" doubters, who seem to be making a stronger case each week. I know the eternal optimists out there are going to want to remind me that Detroit is still in first place in the division. However, taking into consideration how weak the division really is at present, how much of an advantage the Lions should have right now over Green Bay and Chicago injury-wise, and how soon that advantage might be coming to an end, that's not saying very much. And all of that makes the Thanksgiving Day game even more of a must-win.
Yes, the Lions should win tomorrow. But given the last two weeks, that means absolutely nothing.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
The Fielder-Kinsler Trade, And Why It Needed To Happen
You hate to see it end like this. But at the same time, you knew it had to, lest he become the most hated Tiger since Juan Gonzalez donned the Old English D 15 years ago.
Whether it was by sorcery, or compromising photos of Texas GM Jon Daniels, Dave Dombrowski managed to do the only thing that seemed a more insurmountable task than acquiring Prince Fielder in the first place: he traded Fielder, got back a top-5-in-MLB second baseman, and did so without eating more than $30 million of the bloated contract that landed him in Detroit to begin with. And it's hard to argue against the fact that this was something that needed to happen for the future of the franchise.
Certainly, the deal that brought him here was, to put it mildly, a massive overpay on the part of the Tigers. $24 million a year over 9 years, for a guy we all knew wouldn't be worth anywhere near that the further we got into the deal, and would most likely disappear in the playoffs like he did in Milwaukee. But at the time, this team was in a tight spot. They needed a bat to replace Victor Martinez in the worst way, and we'd all but dismissed the possibility of ever bringing Prince to town. "They can't afford him," we said. "He'd never want to play in Detroit," we said.
Then, it happened. And for a moment, logic and reason went out the window. To hell with the ridiculous contract, the prodigal son of one of the greatest power hitters this franchise has ever seen has returned home, to the team where his father had launched 50 bombs in a season, at a time where that just didn't happen, while he launched batting practice balls out of the park at the age of 12. Certainly, if you're a Detroit fan, you want to see this team go all the way no matter what. But given the history the Fielders had with this organization, it would have been something that much more special for Prince to have been a part of it.
It's never that easy in this town, though. Cecil knew it all too well, and was shipped off to the Yankees having never gotten a taste of the playoffs here. Prince made it twice while in Detroit, but his bat went cold both times, going 1-for-14 during the 2012 World Series, and failing to drive in a single run during this year's playoffs. Even worse, he hit something of a slump in the regular season as well, which soured Tigers' fans on him. He didn't exactly help matters in interviews, coming across as somewhat detached and unemotional, and it really seemed towards the end as though he didn't really want to be here.
And the resentment on both sides would have only built more and more if he were to have stayed. Tigers' fans can be absolutely brutal at times, and Prince was already starting to draw their ire, even before his playoff disappearance this season. Now, extend that for the next 7 seasons, throw in the fact that he'll be getting paid $24 million at the age of 36, by which time you'll be left with an essentially immobile DH, as if he's that far from such a fate already; and the likely possibility that you'd have to let not only Max Scherzer walk, but you'd also be looking at Miguel Cabrera's likely departure after the 2015 season as well. You can't tell me that Tigers' fans wouldn't harbor quite a bit of resentment towards the guy whose deal might have just cost them the best hitter in baseball.
But just as improbably as he arrived, he was gone, in a deal that seems almost too ridiculous even for fantasy baseball. And not only have the Tigers acquired one of the top 5 second basemen in the major leagues, but they did it while only sending $30 million dollars to Texas. And you thought the Vernon Wells trade to the Angels was absurdly lopsided.
Which brings us to the return on this trade. Ian Kinsler is no Prince Fielder in the power department, but thankfully he is also no Prince Fielder in the defense or baserunning department. Even in a down 2013 season, Fielder hit twice as many home runs, 40 more RBI, and an OPS 70 points higher than Kinsler. But Kinsler has 15 stolen bases and was good for 15 Defensive Runs Saved, as opposed to Prince's -13, and is overall a slightly more valuable player by war, 2.5 to 2.3. So it's about a wash.
But the Tigers didn't acquire Ian Kinsler to replace Prince Fielder. He's here to replace Omar Infante, and indeed, he's been a more valuable second baseman than Infante in the last two seasons, with a 5.5 WAR to Omar's 3.3. And really, it's entirely unfair to expect that he's going to make up for Fielder's offensive production. That will depend on what moves are made from here on out. Because make no mistake, there will be more moves made, and nothing is out the realm of possibility anymore. Sure, Jhonny Peralta has signed with the Cardinals for the next 4 years, and Jacoby Ellsbury is not happening (or is he?), no matter what anyone says. But if you think that this team is going to roll into 2014 with Nick Castellanos as its starting third baseman and Andy Dirks starting in left, then you probably believe that Trader Dave was serious about starting Hernan Perez at second had this deal not gone down.
Trading Prince Fielder isn't going to solve all the issues this team has going into next season. But it was a good place, and an entirely necessary one, to start. And if we've learned one thing about Dave Dombrowski by now, it's that he's not even close to being done yet.
Whether it was by sorcery, or compromising photos of Texas GM Jon Daniels, Dave Dombrowski managed to do the only thing that seemed a more insurmountable task than acquiring Prince Fielder in the first place: he traded Fielder, got back a top-5-in-MLB second baseman, and did so without eating more than $30 million of the bloated contract that landed him in Detroit to begin with. And it's hard to argue against the fact that this was something that needed to happen for the future of the franchise.
Certainly, the deal that brought him here was, to put it mildly, a massive overpay on the part of the Tigers. $24 million a year over 9 years, for a guy we all knew wouldn't be worth anywhere near that the further we got into the deal, and would most likely disappear in the playoffs like he did in Milwaukee. But at the time, this team was in a tight spot. They needed a bat to replace Victor Martinez in the worst way, and we'd all but dismissed the possibility of ever bringing Prince to town. "They can't afford him," we said. "He'd never want to play in Detroit," we said.
Then, it happened. And for a moment, logic and reason went out the window. To hell with the ridiculous contract, the prodigal son of one of the greatest power hitters this franchise has ever seen has returned home, to the team where his father had launched 50 bombs in a season, at a time where that just didn't happen, while he launched batting practice balls out of the park at the age of 12. Certainly, if you're a Detroit fan, you want to see this team go all the way no matter what. But given the history the Fielders had with this organization, it would have been something that much more special for Prince to have been a part of it.
It's never that easy in this town, though. Cecil knew it all too well, and was shipped off to the Yankees having never gotten a taste of the playoffs here. Prince made it twice while in Detroit, but his bat went cold both times, going 1-for-14 during the 2012 World Series, and failing to drive in a single run during this year's playoffs. Even worse, he hit something of a slump in the regular season as well, which soured Tigers' fans on him. He didn't exactly help matters in interviews, coming across as somewhat detached and unemotional, and it really seemed towards the end as though he didn't really want to be here.
And the resentment on both sides would have only built more and more if he were to have stayed. Tigers' fans can be absolutely brutal at times, and Prince was already starting to draw their ire, even before his playoff disappearance this season. Now, extend that for the next 7 seasons, throw in the fact that he'll be getting paid $24 million at the age of 36, by which time you'll be left with an essentially immobile DH, as if he's that far from such a fate already; and the likely possibility that you'd have to let not only Max Scherzer walk, but you'd also be looking at Miguel Cabrera's likely departure after the 2015 season as well. You can't tell me that Tigers' fans wouldn't harbor quite a bit of resentment towards the guy whose deal might have just cost them the best hitter in baseball.
But just as improbably as he arrived, he was gone, in a deal that seems almost too ridiculous even for fantasy baseball. And not only have the Tigers acquired one of the top 5 second basemen in the major leagues, but they did it while only sending $30 million dollars to Texas. And you thought the Vernon Wells trade to the Angels was absurdly lopsided.
Which brings us to the return on this trade. Ian Kinsler is no Prince Fielder in the power department, but thankfully he is also no Prince Fielder in the defense or baserunning department. Even in a down 2013 season, Fielder hit twice as many home runs, 40 more RBI, and an OPS 70 points higher than Kinsler. But Kinsler has 15 stolen bases and was good for 15 Defensive Runs Saved, as opposed to Prince's -13, and is overall a slightly more valuable player by war, 2.5 to 2.3. So it's about a wash.
But the Tigers didn't acquire Ian Kinsler to replace Prince Fielder. He's here to replace Omar Infante, and indeed, he's been a more valuable second baseman than Infante in the last two seasons, with a 5.5 WAR to Omar's 3.3. And really, it's entirely unfair to expect that he's going to make up for Fielder's offensive production. That will depend on what moves are made from here on out. Because make no mistake, there will be more moves made, and nothing is out the realm of possibility anymore. Sure, Jhonny Peralta has signed with the Cardinals for the next 4 years, and Jacoby Ellsbury is not happening (or is he?), no matter what anyone says. But if you think that this team is going to roll into 2014 with Nick Castellanos as its starting third baseman and Andy Dirks starting in left, then you probably believe that Trader Dave was serious about starting Hernan Perez at second had this deal not gone down.
Trading Prince Fielder isn't going to solve all the issues this team has going into next season. But it was a good place, and an entirely necessary one, to start. And if we've learned one thing about Dave Dombrowski by now, it's that he's not even close to being done yet.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Delayed Reaction: Lions v. Steelers
Of all the times for this team to try and be aggressive, this has to rank among the worst. But Sunday's loss can hardly be hung on the shoulders of Sam Martin.
That said, it may have been a bad idea, or at the least a bad time to attempt it. But the fake field goal that resulted in the punter attempting to run the ball on 4th and 5 and failing miserably at it was hardly the deciding factor behind the Lions' 37-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
It was a bad call on the part of Jim Schwartz, certainly, but not for the reasons most would suggest. Conventional wisdom says you always take the points on the road, but that doesn't account for weather conditions being less than favorable, nor a kicker that barely hit a 35-yarder earlier in the game.
No, the problem in my mind isn't going for it on 4th down. It's putting the ball in the hands of a guy who has never run the ball and clearly has no business running the ball, on a day where even guys who are getting paid to run the ball are struggling to hold on to it. Even had it not been for the fumble, Martin still would have come up short.
Which brings us to one of the big culprits behind this loss: The fact that nobody could hold on to the ball to save their lives. Jeremy Ross and Kevin Ogletree dropped what should have been easily caught passes. Reggie Bush struggled the entire game to hold onto the ball, getting benched for rookie Theo Riddick in the 4th quarter. Obviously, field conditions didn't help much there, but this has been an ongoing problem for Bush all season; he has had more drops and fumbles than any other tailback in the league this year.
Matthew Stafford isn't entirely absolved of blame here, either; for as much as he threw perfect passes to Ross and Ogletree only to see them dropped, there is one particularly bad pass that stands out: an under-thrown ball to a wide-open Calvin Johnson that ended up being picked off by Will Allen, which resulted in the Steelers extending their lead.
But it was the one thing that was the biggest concern going into Sunday's game which proved to be the Lions' undoing in the end: the pass defense, or lack thereof. Even for a team which has allowed it's quarterback to be sacked the second-most of any in the league, due in large part to Ben Roethlisberger's tendency to hold onto the ball for too long and an O-line being held together with little more than paper clips and chewing gum, the Lions failed to exploit this, managing only one sack on Sunday.
The secondary continues to be the most glaring weakness on this team, allowing an 8th receiver this season, Antonio Brown, to rack up 100 yards against them. And Roethlisberger's stats speak for themselves: 367 yards, 4 TD's, and no interceptions, with a season-high 119.4 passer rating. Entirely inexcusable, and it's a weakness that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later if this team intends to do anything in the playoffs this year.
All in all, there's still plenty of time for most of these issues to be taken care of, and keep in mind: For all their flaws, and all the fans repeating the "Same Old Lions" mantra (I picture these people sitting around pining for Wayne Fontes, listening to the Smiths, and thinking about how bleak and meaningless their lives are), this team is still first place in the NFC North. Next week brings in the abysmal Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field. If ever there were a must-win game for this team, this is undoubtedly it. As it stands, the odds of the Lions winning the division are still fairly favorable, but not if they lose yet another game that clearly they should win.
That said, it may have been a bad idea, or at the least a bad time to attempt it. But the fake field goal that resulted in the punter attempting to run the ball on 4th and 5 and failing miserably at it was hardly the deciding factor behind the Lions' 37-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
It was a bad call on the part of Jim Schwartz, certainly, but not for the reasons most would suggest. Conventional wisdom says you always take the points on the road, but that doesn't account for weather conditions being less than favorable, nor a kicker that barely hit a 35-yarder earlier in the game.
No, the problem in my mind isn't going for it on 4th down. It's putting the ball in the hands of a guy who has never run the ball and clearly has no business running the ball, on a day where even guys who are getting paid to run the ball are struggling to hold on to it. Even had it not been for the fumble, Martin still would have come up short.
Which brings us to one of the big culprits behind this loss: The fact that nobody could hold on to the ball to save their lives. Jeremy Ross and Kevin Ogletree dropped what should have been easily caught passes. Reggie Bush struggled the entire game to hold onto the ball, getting benched for rookie Theo Riddick in the 4th quarter. Obviously, field conditions didn't help much there, but this has been an ongoing problem for Bush all season; he has had more drops and fumbles than any other tailback in the league this year.
Matthew Stafford isn't entirely absolved of blame here, either; for as much as he threw perfect passes to Ross and Ogletree only to see them dropped, there is one particularly bad pass that stands out: an under-thrown ball to a wide-open Calvin Johnson that ended up being picked off by Will Allen, which resulted in the Steelers extending their lead.
But it was the one thing that was the biggest concern going into Sunday's game which proved to be the Lions' undoing in the end: the pass defense, or lack thereof. Even for a team which has allowed it's quarterback to be sacked the second-most of any in the league, due in large part to Ben Roethlisberger's tendency to hold onto the ball for too long and an O-line being held together with little more than paper clips and chewing gum, the Lions failed to exploit this, managing only one sack on Sunday.
The secondary continues to be the most glaring weakness on this team, allowing an 8th receiver this season, Antonio Brown, to rack up 100 yards against them. And Roethlisberger's stats speak for themselves: 367 yards, 4 TD's, and no interceptions, with a season-high 119.4 passer rating. Entirely inexcusable, and it's a weakness that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later if this team intends to do anything in the playoffs this year.
All in all, there's still plenty of time for most of these issues to be taken care of, and keep in mind: For all their flaws, and all the fans repeating the "Same Old Lions" mantra (I picture these people sitting around pining for Wayne Fontes, listening to the Smiths, and thinking about how bleak and meaningless their lives are), this team is still first place in the NFC North. Next week brings in the abysmal Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field. If ever there were a must-win game for this team, this is undoubtedly it. As it stands, the odds of the Lions winning the division are still fairly favorable, but not if they lose yet another game that clearly they should win.
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